Article Abstract

The 3-60 criteria challenge established predictors of postoperative mortality and enable timely therapeutic intervention after liver resection

Authors: Georg P. Gyoeri, David Pereyra, Eva Braunwarth, Markus Ammann, Philipp Jonas, Florian Offensperger, Florian Klinglmueller, Ruth Baumgartner, Sandra Holzer, Michael Gnant, Friedrich Laengle, Stefan Staettner, Thomas Gruenberger, Patrick Starlinger

Abstract

Background: To date, definitions of liver dysfunction (LD) after hepatic resection rely on late postoperative time points. Further, the used parameters are markedly influenced by perioperative management. Thus, we aimed to establish a very early postoperative score to predict postoperative mortality.
Methods: Liver related parameters were evaluated after liver resection in a retrospective evaluation cohort of 228 colorectal cancer patients with liver metastasis (mCRC) and subsequent validation in a prospective set of 482 consecutive patients from 4 independent institutions undergoing hepatic resection was performed.
Results: C-reactive protein (CRP, AUC =0.739, P<0.001) and antithrombinIII-activiy (ATIII, AUC =0.844, P<0.001) on the first postoperative day (POD) were found to be elevated in patients with LD. Cut-off values for CRP at 3 mg/dL and for ATIII at 60% significantly identified high-risk patients for postoperative LD and mortality (P<0.001) and thus defined the 3-60 criteria on POD1. The 3-60 criteria showed superior sensitivity and specificity compared to established criteria for LD [3-60 criteria: total positive patients: 26 patients (70% mortality detected), odds ratio (OR): 48.8; International Study Group for Liver Surgery: total positive patients: 43 (70% mortality detected), OR: 23.3; Peak7: total positive patients: 9, (30% mortality detected), OR: 27.8; 50-50: total positive patients: 9 (30% mortality detected), OR: 27.8]. These results could be validated in a multi-center analysis and ultimately the 3-60 criteria remained an independent predictor of postoperative mortality upon multivariable analysis.
Conclusions: The 3-60 criteria on POD1 predict postoperative LD and mortality early after liver resection with a comparable or better accuracy than established criteria, allowing for immediate identification of high-risk patients.